Amazing Comeback for Gerhard Schröder

According to the latest projections of Der Spiegel, the SPD will remain the strongest faction in the Bundestag, with 223 seats compared to 220 for the CDU.  The election was a huge setback for Angela Merkel and the CDU, which actually did worse than in the last general election. Merkel is still insisting on the chancellorship, but so is Schröder :

Bundeskanzler Schröder präsentierte sich nach der Wahl trotz der starken Verluste als Sieger. "Wir haben etwas erreicht, was viele der professionellen Beobachter in diesem Land vor wenigen Tagen noch für völlig unmöglich gehalten hätten. Wie die Union aus einem desaströsen Wahlergebnis einen politischen Führungsanspruch ableiten will, das wird es nicht geben." Schröder versicherte, "dass es auch in den nächsten vier Jahren eine stabile Regierung unter meiner Führung geben wird".

But as I write this, it is unclear how the SPD can build a majority. The Linkspartei clearly did not achieve its objective of becoming the third strongest party, due to the surprising strength of the Liberals (FDP) even though it was the dominant force in the eastern states.  In any event, Schröder has ruled out forming a coalition with his hated erstwhile comrade Oskar Lafontaine.  Which leaves only the liberals.  But the neo-con/neo-liberal economic agenda of the FDP is so alien from the stated goals of the Social Democrats, a "stoplight coalition" (red-green-yellow) is hard to imagine.

Likewise, I cannot imagine the Greens joining a black-yellow coalition, which has been suggested by some in the CSU. So a grand coalition of SPD/CDU appears to be the most likely outcome, although Merkel is clearly weakened as a leader from the election results today.  Things are in flux; the situation tonight is unclear. But the results are completely unexpected; clearly the pollsters failed miserably this time.

The Washington Post has a helpful graphic to aid in understanding the intricacies of German parliamentary government. 

Comments

[ludwig]

Superficially speaking, a Jamaica coalition seems liklier than a stoplight coalition. Do you think the Greens could be satisfied if the CDU/FDP offered Fischer the foreign ministry (Gerhardt wasn't going to be much different anyway) and offered to continue Green genetic and anti-nuclear policies? If the CDU/FDP could get their way on other issues, they might rather make this compromise than risk another vote or a grand coalition.

Or is the socialist backbone of the Greens still to prevalent for this sort of compromise?