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July 10, 2012



Regarding the quote in the headline:

Is Roubini what Friedman was for the Iraq war? From now on we can describe six month as "1 Friedman/Roubini".

From my summary of a Bergsten/Kierkegaard paper:
"Since 2010 many pundits and financial analysts have constantly proclaimed that EU leaders only have three months to save the Euro. The general mood and the outlook gets more and more pessimistic. Thus, the policy brief by Fred Bergsten and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard presents a welcome change of tune. The director and research fellow of the Peterson Institute for International Economics argue that many analysts and market gurus "have their own political and market positioning reasons for making such comments" and advise to "attach limited importance to them.""

Okay, Roubini was right in 2008. Was that a one time thing or his predictions rate good?

Anybody want to bet on the Roubini prediction? Well, I am not sure what exactly he means with "I give the Euro three to six months"

Will Greece leave the Euro by January 1, 2013? I think there is only 1/3 chance of that happening.

That would not be the end of the Euro...

I am willing to bet that the Euro will still be around in six month. Moreover, I think, Spain and Italy will still be in the Eurozone. Only if they would leave, it is justified to speak of the end of the euro. But that won't happen by January 1, 2013.



To be sure, Roubini makes a nice living shouting "the sky is falling", but the crisis has exposed the fatal flaw that is at the heart of the Eurozone.

The question is: are countries in the Eurozone willing to relinquish economic sovereignty? Is Germany willing to support the issuance of Eurobonds?

It seems to me there a lack of political will across the continent.


Germany should say "YES" to the second question (and I think Berlin will), when the first question has been answered positively as well.

It seems that the situation is not dire enough yet for the EU governments to make this bargain. They seem to be playing a game of chicken.


Regarding Greece Roubini is ignoring the fact that the Greek government was falsifying its deficit/borrowing figures by a factor of up to 2, and of course using much of the money to effectively bribe the voters, and that the Greeks were happy to get chaep credit until the time came to pay it back (and they have gotten a 100 billion writeoff also).


"I give the Euro three to six months"

Time is up, but the Euro is still here.

I hope Roubini and his fans/colleagues put their money were their mouth was and lost a lot of money.

Alas, it seems Hedge Funds made again a lot of money in the last few days when Greece paid back debt at higher prices. Could that have been avoided, if our politicians had kept their mouthes shut?

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