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May 24, 2016



Shareholders are stupid and impertinent - stupid because they give their money to
somebody else without any effective control over what this person is doing with it - impertinent because they ask for a dividend as a reward for their stupidity.
Carl Furstenberg, German Banker

Your risky recommendation (short BAYRY) means to place a bet on a falling stock price. To do that, one would have to find someone who believes the stock price will rise. That's not a problem, but it sheds a light on a general dilemma unless you are an insider or, at least, a very experienced investor: You will make decisions based
a) on informations which are already implemented in the stock price,
b) on further expectations 'heard on the street' and wishful thinking.

Therefore, I would only buy stocks in situations when the majority is selling (bottom fishing) and never, when we are near of all time highs and interest rates at their lowest levels. Do you remember the Japanese stock market in the eighties? The Nikkei was at 40.000, the Japanese interest rates lamost at zero. 25 years later, the Nikkei ist still at 20.000...

I'd rather play poker :P


Koogleschreiber, I would say you have a point :-)

I am waiting for well over 9 months now for a major decline and will continue to do so before re-investing what is not already bound to the market.


" I would only buy stocks in situations when the majority is selling."

There is a greater than 50% chance that Bayer will not succeed in its offer, in which case the stock would quickly bounce back.

Still, Baumann's actions don't give me a lot of confidence in his skills as CEO.


from OCA newsletter [see link] of 29 May 2016: "Is there an upside to the proposed merger, and the recently proposed mergers between agritoxics titans Dow and DuPont, and ChemChina and Syngenta? If so, it could be this. Industries that are thriving generally spin off. Industries that are performing poorly generally merge and consolidate."


thank you for this.

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