Survey of Political Parties in Germany

Political journalist Andreas Kluth has a helpful posted a helpful analysis of the current political landscape in Germany on the Web site of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies (AICGS).  Kluth points out that for decades after the end of WWII politics in Germany was "boring", with power shifting between the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) with the minority liberal Free Democrats (FDP) playing king-maker.  This system provided remarkable stability to West Germany for 40 years.  But three events delivered a "shock to the system" and have upended the postwar political stability in Germany: 1) rise of the upstart  Green Party; 2) collapse of East Germany and reunification resulting in an influx of authoritarian voters who supported both far left and far right parties; and 3) the arrival of over 1 million migrants from middle east and African countries in 2015 - 2016.  These shocks essentially put an end to the left-right polarity of the postwar era and created instead an open-close polarity.  The "open" parities, primarily the Greens, the FDP, and Angela Merkel's CDU are committed to free markets, pro-American, and see benefits to (controlled) immigration.  The "closed" parties - primarily the right-wing extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the left-wing dieLINKE ( Left Party), are anti-immigrant, protectionist, and pro-Russia.  Caught in the middle are the Social Democrats (SPD), who have failed to stake out a clear position and have lost support of its traditional working class constituency - many of whom have migrated to the AfD.  If there is a winner in this new, convoluted, political reality it would have to be the Green Party.

"Since the refugee crisis, moreover, the Greens have become the party that most uncompromisingly hews to its cosmopolitan, humanitarian, and pro­-migrant philosophy. This clarity appeals to the many Germans who share this sentiment, and who at the ballot box want to send a clear signal rejecting the AfD. The recent rise of the Greens is therefore the direct counterpart of the earlier rise of the AfD.

Statistics on voter migrations in recent regional polls, such as those in Hesse and Bavaria, bear out this trend. In both places, the big-­tent Union parties (the CDU and CSU, respectively) lost voters almost equally to the AfD on one side and the Greens on the other. Voters, in other words, migrated away from the woolly middle ground and to the clearer poles representing “open” and “closed.” In effect, it is now the Greens, not the Social Democrats, who are the mainstream center-left alternative to the Union parties."

Despite the rise of the authoritarian "closed" parties and the weakness of the SPD, Kluth sees the current coalition government under chancellor Merkel remaining in power until the 2021 national elections. After that, he sees a "Black-Green" (CDU - Green Party) coalition as the likely governing future for Germany.

"But I believe the chances of a coalition between the Union and the Greens are far better. They have been governing well together in Baden-­Württemberg and Hesse. And they have a demographic affinity, illustrated by the unscientific “dinner­ table test.” As Manfred Güllner, one of Germany’s best pollsters, has described, Christian Democrats, Free Democrats, and Greens tend to come from the same families—in effect, the educated upper middle class. At a given family’s dinner, dad might vote CDU/CSU, mom and sis Green, and bro FDP (or vice versa). This explains, first, the almost Freudian passions when these partisans argue. It also explains, second, why they would eventually work it out and stay together."

Comments

[Koogleschreiber]

Some successful coalitions in some states don't mean anything for the whole country. "What belongs to the village remains in the village." Both CDU/CSU and the Green Party would have to swallow several ugly toads in the Bundestag - and why should the Greens repeat the giant mistake of the SPD that led to her decline? The CSU will probably sharpen their image as an alternative to the AFD and how could they row backwards then and accept green demands? In deed, I'm expecting a strong polarization in the coming preelection for the next Bundestag. Maybe the FDP can profit from this polarization and be the king-maker again. For Red-Red-Green.

[David]

Lindner is a jerk, but I don't see him doing anything to advance the fortunes of dieLinke.