IThis week marked the 70th anniversary of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the most successful alliance in history that brought peace, prosperity and freedom to Europe. And yet the celebration felt more like a funeral, with a number of member nations - led by Germany - questioning the necessity of NATO:
Is NATO dying? The idea was once unthinkable, but after the German cabinet decided to keep defense spending as low as 1.25% of gross domestic product for the next five years it has become unavoidable. This decision is not driven by any fiscal urgency. Germany is projected to have a balanced budget after last year’s surplus of €11.2 billion, its fifth annual surplus in a row.
What Berlin means by this decision is clear: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the U.S. are not as important to Germany as they used to be. While irritation with and contempt for President Trump influence German foreign policy, something more profound is at work. Democrats including President Obama, as well as Republicans like John McCain, have long called on Germany to demonstrate its commitment to NATO by spending 2% of GDP on defense. By refusing even to come close to meeting NATO’s spending targets, Berlin is thumbing its nose not only at Donald Trump but at the U.S.
That Germany is now seen as an unreliable partner did not go unnoticed by some German observers - who call Germany "bündnisunfähig" - loosely translated as unable to live up to its commitments:
Am meisten gilt das für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland, deren politische Elite gewohnheitsmäßig auf Nato-Gipfeln kraftvolle Entschlüsse unterstützt, um dann, wieder zu Hause, das Gegenteil zu tun. So viel Illoyalität geht eine Weile gut – und dann nicht mehr. [...]Von autonomer europäischer Verteidigung zu fabulieren, falls Trumps Amerika eigene Wege geht, ist Zeitvergeudung und nährt nur Illusionen. Die Wahrheit lautet: Der deutsche Tugendbold ist nicht mehr bündnisfähig.
This unwillingness, or inability, to meet its commitments has caused some to question the value of the alliance - as, for example this commentary in the Wall Street Journal: Why America Needs New Alliances:
A central question for a revitalized alliance of democratic nations is which way the winds will blow in Western Europe. For a generation after the Berlin Wall’s fall in 1989, U.S. administrations seemed willing to take responsibility for Europe’s security indefinitely. European elites grew accustomed to the idea that perpetual peace was at hand, devoting themselves to turning the EU into a borderless utopia with generous benefits for all.
But Europe has been corrupted by its dependence on the U.S. Germany, the world’s fifth-largest economic power (with a GDP larger than Russia’s), cannot field more than a handful of operational combat aircraft, tanks or submarines. Yet German leaders steadfastly resist American pressure for substantial increases in their country’s defense capabilities, telling interlocutors that the U.S. is ruining a beautiful friendship.
Recent polls in Germany show that Germans fear Donald Trump more than Vladimir Putin. Maybe Germany would be happier as part of the Russian Federation?
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